Happy James Outman Day! His MLB debut isn't as anticipated as Corey Seager's or Cody Bellinger's were, but I'm still looking very forward to it. I'm in the he's good enough to be a regular on a championship team camp. Others view him as more of a 4th outfielder. Starting today we begin learning which side might be more correct.
Barring a series of injuries, this is the proverbial cup of coffee. When Zach McKinstry was sent to the Cubs, the Dodgers needed to locate a 13th position player for the big league roster. Outman was the only healthy outfielder on the 40-man. Jason Martin has hit .285/.374/.574 at OKC and is at least as deserving of a few days of MLB meal money. But calling him up would mean DFAing one of the bullpen suspects. As soon as they acquire a bat at the deadline or activate Edwin Ríos or Chris Taylor, Outman is going back to OKC.
If you've heard the term Quad-A player, it refers to someone who can tear up AAA, but struggles in the big leagues. I think this is mostly a myth and a matter of players having a tough go in a very limited sample size a couple of times and then pressing on a third or fourth short runway opportunity. I'll contend if you gave these guys 300 plate appearances without risk of demotion, most would perform just fine. Eddy Alvarez is a perfect example. His MLB numbers are awful, but he's never gotten even 150 PAs to prove himself.
I think there's also a type that is the opposite of a Quad-A player. Someone who can get off to a great start after getting the big promotion. It doesn't mean they won't get into trouble later as pitchers adjust and need to adjust back. It doesn't guarantee a brilliant career. But they tend to hit the ground running. I think Outman is this type and have thought so since spring training 2021.
As Cody Bellinger continues to look lost at the plate, Outman's audition becomes more important. I don't think there's any chance he replaces a healthy Belli in 2022, but if the next two months plus October resemble April-July, the Dodgers will think twice before giving him $20ish million for next season. An Outman/Trayce Thompson combo could potentially perform significantly better than the current Cody, and do so almost for free. With the Dodgers in an upper tax bracket, the financial difference would be more like $30-35 million.
Outman debuts in right field, with Mookie Betts at second, and Gavin Lux in left. No, Dave Roberts didn't pick the lineup out of a hat. There's logic to this, even though Outman, who is above average at all three outfield spots, could have just played left.
The official reasoning on playing Mookie at second is doing so every 7-10 games will ease the wear on him from running around the outfield. That's shaky logic to me. If they really want him taking it easy, just DH him once in awhile. Lux is proving he's one of the best second basemen in the league. Hanser Alberto is starting to hit and they tend to use second to fit him in against lefties. CT3 was going to stay in the outfield all season because of his winter elbow surgery, but he's reportedly now ready to mix outfield and infield throwing motions and will get some time at second on his rehab assignment. Max Muncy can play second.
How important is it to have a fifth second base option when the starter is borderline All-Star level? The paranoid side wonders if Lux might actually be on the table in a possible Juan Soto deal. While that could be, or they could be using Lux to try to pry Shohei Ohtani out of Arte Moreno's clutches, more likely the Dodgers are chasing what they always are. Optionality.
Mookie is a game-changing right fielder. I sincerely doubt the plan is to have him become the new second baseman after moving Lux. He likes taking grounders there, likes playing there, and if they can make the guy who's under contract for the next decade happy while adding cards to their deck, they're gonna do that.
Should they need Lux in the outfield in October, he's getting a lot more reps than he had last year. Moving him to the outfield here and there doesn't seem to have harmed him at the plate, so why not. This is what the Dodgers do. And the flexibility created by these odd shuffles makes it easier to deal with inevitable injuries.
We're getting near 48 hours from the deadline and still don't have the slightest idea what the Dodgers will do beyond getting Chris Martin. With the exception of the Manny Machado trade, all the big deals of the Friedman Era have been last minute, often announced a few minutes after close of business. The front office leaks less than any other. Between the closed lips and multiple possible directions, it's always a surprise. This year is no exception.
So while I get increasingly nervous and edgy as Tuesday afternoon approaches and will continue to cross fingers and toes that Lux, Dustin May, Miguel Vargas, and Gavin Stone are still Dodgers on Wednesday, I'm planning on enjoying Outman's debut. He belongs in the big leagues.
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