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The Kansas City Chiefs have many depth pieces that are facing free agency this offseason. In some ways, a number of these players may be seen as easily replaceable. Kansas City may also be missing game-changing type of traits if they were to move on, however. One player that falls directly into this bucket of pending free agents, is safety Juan Thornhill.
The former second-round pick out of Virginia has endured a rollercoaster of a run with the Chiefs so far. Yet, part of his question marks arose from items that were out of his control. Namely, the torn ACL that he suffered late in his rookie season was something that no one could have accounted for. It took Juan Thornhill significant time to recover from that and return to form. That is especially true as a defensive back.
Will the Chiefs automatically re-sign Juan Thornhill this offseason? If recent history is any indicator, Kansas City likely only does so at a price that is strictly comfortable for them. Let's kick it off.
Chiefs Usually Only Pay One Safety At A High Price
The recent history of the spending from Kansas City is pretty clear, when it comes to the safety position. There is usually just one big name, veteran safety that gets paid handsomely. For three years from 2019 to 2021, that man was Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu secured a free agent deal in the 2019 offseason that paid him an average of $14 million per season. In turn, Kansas City rebuilt their defense with a new attitude and swagger, led by Mathieu. It led to two Super Bowl appearances and one Super Bowl win with the Honey Badger.
Then last offseason, the Chiefs essentially replaced Mathieu with Justin Reid, giving Juan Thornhill a new partner in crime. Reid signed a three-year deal that pays him an average of $10.5 million per season. Certainly, that is less than what Mathieu got as an average annual value per year. Kansas City just does not shell out much more than $10 million to multiple safeties each season.
So, where does that put Juan Thornhill? It was obvious that he would not exceed $10 million per season on his next contract. But, Thornhill may strictly hit a ceiling price that is essentially non-negotiable in any contract talks with the Chiefs. Going above whatever mark that may be just does not seem like something that Kansas City would love to do. From a pure dollars and cents perspective, there could be much better options for Juan Thornhill on the open market, outside of the Chiefs.
Juan Thornhill's Free Agent Case
The free agent case of Juan Thornhill is incredibly intriguing. He will only be entering his fifth career season in 2023. Even with that devastating injury suffered late in his rookie season, Thornhill has amassed 74 games in four seasons, including playoffs. The injury left him a bit off, in terms of timing and decision making in 2020. Some of those issues even sneaked their way into the early parts of 2021.
In his four years, Juan Thornhill has been able to make necessary stops in the open field, make key interceptions and create pass breakups at the catch point. It seems like he has been able to get those in the most crucial of games, or against the best opponents that the Chiefs face. Though, you are always left wanting more from him during parts of the season.
It is not a player that has failed to develop in given areas, per se. At the same time, Juan Thornhill could have possibly reached his performance ceiling inside the Chiefs defense. That is not to say that he cannot continue to improve in Kansas City. Overall, it is difficult to envision the Chiefs receiving much more from Juan Thornhill than what they have already received. That is regardless of the aforementioned price tag question, to boot.
Could Kansas City Improve At That Safety Spot?
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When thinking about Juan Thornhill and his performance ceiling, the easy answer here is likely yes. The Chiefs could probably improve at this free safety spot. Kansas City has a chance to receive even more ball production by another player filling that role, compared to what they got from Juan Thornhill.
Of course, Bryan Cook was able to gain more playing time late in the 2022 season and into the playoffs. He had a vital pass breakup that led to a deflected interception for Joshua Williams in the AFC Championship Game. Entering year two, Cook could be primed to handle full-time starting duties. On the other hand, the Chiefs may look to add more depth, if Juan Thornhill does not return. Adding a safety that can offer ball production would be major for Kansas City.
Be on the lookout for more FPC Chiefs articles and analysis throughout this week. For more great sports and NFL content, stay tuned to Full Press Coverage.
– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.
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